Advanced Packaging : 3d Silicon And Glass Interposers
Reort On 3D Silicon
and Glass Interposers
Why and how 2.5D integration will impact more than
15% of the IC substrate business by 2017
2.5D AND 3D INTEGRATION IS SET
TO BE A LONG-LASTING TREND IN THE SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY
After meeting with
swift commercial success on a few initial applications, including MEMS, sensors
and power amplifiers, 3D integration has been on everyonea�?s mind for the past
five years. However, once the initial euphoria faded, and despite technical
developments which assured most observers that mass adoption of 3D was not out
of reach, some unanticipated technical and supply chain hurdles were revealed
that were higher than anticipated. It was then that 2.5D integration by means of
3D glass or silicon interposers was revealed by experts as a necessary
stepping-stone to full 3D integration. Our first report on 3D interposers and
2.5D integration was in 2010; at that time, we listed the various applications
of this technology trend and its drivers, and we showed that glass and silicon
interposers were expected to become high-volume necessities, rather than just
high-performance solutions for a few niche applications.
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Wafer foundries appear to be the
most able entities to offer manufacturing solutions on the open market, both
technically and in terms of capex investment capabilities. But their ambition
extends far beyond the manufacturing of wafers Rigid flex, and into assembly and test
services as well.
Concurrently, some of the major IDMs are preparing to
exploit their wide capabilities and to enter the open foundry and assembly
services side for 2.5D and 3D integration based on such new type of IC package
substrate technologies.
IS COST REALLY AN ISSUE IN THE LONG
TERM?
Significant investments began in 2012, with more than $150M capex
expected and driven by both wafer foundries (TSMC, Global Foundries) and OSATs
(Amkor, ASE). No one, especially in Taiwan, wants to be left behind in this
high-growth story, as it clearly appears to be a central piece of the increasing
middle-end business and infrastructure, halfway between the front-end silicon
foundries and the back-end assembly & test facilities.
The question
now is: a�can anyone build a profitable business case to support the growth of
2.5D/3D interposersa�? In other words, how long will it take for investing
companies to be paid back, while offering affordable prices to their customers?
Yole expects the expansion model of this new technology trend to follow a
traditional path: first, high-value modules are expected to use the technology
to offer unprecedented high performance Rigid flex PCB, followed by higher
volume applications.
The nice thing about 2.5D interposers is that they
do not only allow for unprecedented performance: they can do so for a much lower
cost than any competing technology. Through a few cost cases in this report, we
demonstrate that cost can be a strong adoption driver too. No, silicon and glass
interposers are not a�additional dead pieces of hardware in the packagea� -- on
the contrary, they are among the top five key elements of the semiconductor
roadmap for the decade 2010-2020.
KEY FEATURES OF THE REPORT
Detailed
view, by product and device type, of the key applications driving the
commercialization of 2.5D interposer substrates
Detailed 2011 a� 2017 market
forecast in both unit and wafer shipments, including a revenues analysis of
Middle-end to Back-end assembly & test-related activities
Overview of the
positioning of different key players, and an understanding of supply chain
challenges happening between the different business models in
place
Technology trends & roadmaps, including the topic of glass
interposers and the possible move to large PANEL area processing, leveraging LCD
or PCB infrastructures
Detailed cost structure of several different 2.5D
interposer packages: system-level evaluation of several different case
scenarios, analyzing the expected cost decrease trend over five
years
Analysis of the required investment in terms of capex between 2011 -
2017
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